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2024 Recession Prediction Meaning. We see a 25% chance of recession by the first half of 2024, 45% by the second half of 2024 and 60% by the first half of. Economists are butting heads over whether the u.s.

As consensus shifts toward a “soft landing” in the us, risks remain across the global economy. Typically, a recession is defined by a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months, the nber says.